R&D World · Data Infrastructure

The AI Capex Arms Race, 2026

What the biggest platforms have actually disclosed about 2026 capex, plus major multi-year buildouts
$490B
Combined full-year 2026 capex guidance, where explicitly disclosed (Amazon $200B, Alphabet $175B to $185B, Meta $115B to $135B). That implies $490B to $520B for those three alone. Microsoft has not published a single full-year 2026 capex figure, but reported $37.5B capex in Q2 FY2026 (quarterly, not guidance).
Company Capex figure shown What they say the money is for
Amazon
$200B
2026 capex guidance
▲ about 52% vs 2025 cash PP&E purchases ($131.8B)
 Amazon guided about $200B in 2026 capex across the company. In the same statement, Amazon tied the step-up to AI, chips, robotics, and low Earth orbit satellites.
AWS footprint context: 39 AWS Regions and 123 Availability Zones.
Source: Amazon Q4 2025 earnings release (Feb 5, 2026)
Alphabet
$175B
to $185B (2026E)
▲ about 91% to 102% vs 2025 cash PP&E purchases ($91.447B)
 Alphabet disclosed expected 2026 capex of $175B to $185B. The filing’s cash flow statement shows $91.447B of 2025 purchases of property and equipment.
Source: Alphabet (Google) SEC filing dated Feb 4, 2026
Microsoft
$37.5B
Q2 FY2026 capex (quarter)
Reported, not full-year 2026 guidance
 Microsoft reported $37.5B of capex in Q2 FY2026. CFO commentary said about two-thirds was short-lived assets (servers, including CPUs and GPUs). Microsoft also said it added nearly 1 gigawatt of capacity in the quarter.
Source: Microsoft FY2026 Q2 earnings call transcript
Meta
$115B
to $135B (2026E)
▲ about 59% to 87% vs 2025 capex ($72.22B)
 Meta guided 2026 capex of $115B to $135B (capex includes principal payments on finance leases). Meta attributed the year-over-year increase to investment supporting its Superintelligence Labs efforts and core business.
Source: Meta Q4 2025 earnings release (Jan 28, 2026)
Stargate
OpenAI · SoftBank · Oracle
$500B
over 4 years (announced)
Multi-year commitment, not annual capex guidance
 OpenAI announced Stargate as a plan to invest $500B over four years and begin deploying $100B immediately. OpenAI later said Stargate is targeting a 10 gigawatt buildout and announced five additional U.S. sites.
Abilene, Texas buildout context has been reported at roughly 4 million square feet.
Sources: OpenAI announcement and follow-up site list
xAI
Acquired by SpaceX (Feb 2026)
n/a
no public capex guidance
Not comparable to public-company capex guidance
 Colossus is the world's largest single-site AI training cluster: 200,000+ GPUs operational (150K H100, 50K H200, 30K+ GB200), built in 122 days. A second facility (Colossus 2) is bringing 555,000 Blackwell GPUs online (~$18B in Nvidia silicon). A third site ("MACROHARDRR") targets 2 GW total capacity and a roadmap to 1 million GPUs. Separate reporting in early Feb 2026 said SpaceX acquired xAI.
Regulatory: In Jan 2026, EPA closed the "nonroad engine" loophole xAI used to run up to 35 unpermitted gas turbines at the Memphis site. The NAACP and Southern Environmental Law Center had filed intent to sue under the Clean Air Act (June 2025) and appealed the Shelby County Health Department's turbine permit (July 2025). EPA's final rule (40 CFR Part 60, eff. Jan 15, 2026) now requires Clean Air Act permits for site-bound turbines regardless of whether they're trailer-mounted.
Sources: xAI/Colossus site; Wikipedia; CNBC (Jan 16, 2026); SELC; Ars Technica; AP; TechCrunch
For scale, what $490B to $520B represents (annual capex guidance only)
20× to 21× NASA
Using NASA’s FY2026 budget (about $24.4B enacted, per reporting)
58% to 62% of FY2026 defense appropriations
Compared with an $838.7B FY2026 Defense Appropriations base discretionary total
About equal to Stargate’s full 4-year headline number
Stargate is a multi-year plan, shown separately to avoid mixing definitions
Method note: The $490B to $520B aggregate includes only companies that explicitly disclosed full-year 2026 capex guidance in primary documents. Microsoft is shown as a quarterly reported figure (Q2 FY2026), because a single full-year 2026 capex guidance number is not published in the same way in the cited transcript.
Definition note: Company capex definitions differ. Meta defines capex as purchases of property and equipment plus principal payments on finance leases. Amazon and Alphabet figures for 2025 shown here use cash flow line items for purchases of property and equipment.
Sources (primary where possible):
1) Amazon Q4 2025 earnings release (capex guidance; cash flow statement): Amazon IR
2) Alphabet SEC filing (2026 capex expectation; 2025 PP&E purchases): SEC (Alphabet)
3) Meta Q4 2025 earnings release (2026 capex range; 2025 capex): Meta IR
4) Microsoft FY2026 Q2 earnings call transcript (quarterly capex figure and commentary): Microsoft IR
5) OpenAI Stargate announcement ($500B over four years; $100B immediately): OpenAI
6) OpenAI follow-up (five new U.S. Stargate sites; 10 GW framing): OpenAI
7) Abilene site reporting context: Texas Standard and AP
8) AWS Regions and Availability Zones count: AWS
9) FY2026 defense appropriations top line: Senate Appropriations (PDF)
10) NASA FY2026 budget reporting context: Space.com
11) xAI turbine permit and lawsuit reporting: Ars Technica and AP
12) SpaceX acquisition of xAI reporting: TechCrunch
R&D World · rdworldonline.com · February 2026